Issue 2: The Butterfly Effect
This crisis has brought home to me the impact that each of us has, and can have, in the world. Due to the exponential transmission of the highly infectious coronavirus, one person has the potential to infect 59,049 within ten cycles (one infects on average three, each of whom infect three more, etc). In the same time that is taking place, a campaign for volunteers to support the NHS reached 750,000. These are staggering numbers and they all start with one person.
Social contagion is a feature of humanity that can work to our advantage or disadvantage. There is a charming reminder of this in my local park where one child hung a homemade rainbow on a tree two weeks ago and now we have dozens of signs and painted stones throughout the woods from children offering hope to all who pass. It’s the adults who seem to need it the most.
In chaos theory, the ‘butterfly effect’ refers to the acutely sensitive dependence on triggering conditions which can lead to huge variations in outcome due to nonlinear progression from one to the other. According to our understanding of the theory so far, it isn’t possible to trace cause to effect (for example, in weather conditions) because the variables are too complex to track.
I find this extraordinarily challenging as I sit in my comfortable home with my relatively privileged life because it forces me to ask really uncomfortable questions like: ‘Am I doing enough? What role am I supposed to be playing in this that could have (or not have) a good outcome? How is my potentially unique ‘flapping of my wings’, or lack of it, affecting those around me and way beyond?’
I wrestle with these questions and come up with what seem like woefully modest actions. But I’ve come to realise that each action is ultimately an act of faith – faith that what I have to offer may be enough, may have an effect larger than I can imagine. Although my actions can feel wholly inadequate at times, this crisis is teaching me that it all matters, that what I do really matters.